Introduction
Essential Information
Bankroll Management and Drawdown
Obtaining Advised Prices
- Popular Tipsters
- Time of Bet Placement
- Bookmaker Restrictions
Types of Bet
My Current Portfolio
Introduction
To supplement trading activity it is prudent to run a portfolio of systems/products to spread your financial risk.
My current active betting portfolio is at the bottom of this article. However before jumping straight in and blindly following tipping services, please do your own background research and read the advice below.
ESSENTIAL INFORMATION
Please ensure you have read the essential information found here.
Bankroll Management and Drawdown
When operating a betting system or service you must allocate it it's own portion of your total betting funds.
When deciding the amount of funds to allocate to a system you should take into account the maximum probable drawdown of funds, based on historical performance. For example, if you found a service which was long term profitable but had previously lost 30 bets in a row, you would want funds in place to comfortably cover a future occurrence of this scenario.
Professional bettors do this by operating a points (pts) system based on total bank size per system. If choosing to operate a 100pt bank, at £10 per point, total bank size would be £1000 (£10x100pts).
One point is equal to one bet. Therefore a 100 point bank is equal to 100 bets.
Should our theoretical betting service again be 30pts down, you would be comfortably within your predetermined allowed bankroll, and in a position to make a reasoned call.
Some possible outcomes as follows:
When considering the maximum drawdown of a product or service, you should always be checking historical performance data over as long a period of time as possible. Short time frames (less than 12 months) are unsuitable as they are more likely subject to variance.
A service where this information is not available is not worthy of your consideration. Independently proofed results are always preferable.
Also of consideration when considering drawdown is the style of service. For example, a service may specialise is tipping high probability outcomes at low returns (odds). A service of this style hitting a 30pt drawdown would be of huge concern. For a service specialising in low probability outcomes at very high returns, the same 30pt drawdown may be wholly acceptable and well within the allowed range.
Each product or service in use should be allocated it's own individual bankroll. An example is shown below:
Personal trading strategy: 100pts at £10 per pt = £1000.
Horse racing service 1: 100pts at £10 per pt = £1000.
Horse racing service 2: 100pts at £10 per pt = £1000.
Football service: 100pts at £10 per pt = £1000.
Golf service: 100pts at £10 per pt = £1000.
Total betting bank = £5000.
Obtaining Advised Prices
This is important to ensure long term profitability, but comes with challenges. I have outlined some below. More information on the importance of value is here.
- Popular Tipsters:
Very well known tipsters often cause prices on horse racing selections to crash within minutes of being posted online. A well known example of this is Hugh Taylor.
Hugh certainly knows his horses inside out and has been involved in the game from a young age, but getting bets on his selections at his advised prices is notoriously different.
The simple reason for this is that Hugh is extremely well known and people rush to bet on his selections as soon as they are published. In turn the advised price is cut by bookmakers and the value is lost. Of course the bookmakers are also fully aware of Hugh and the time of day his selections are published.
Hugh acknowledges this here and advises against backing his selections at less than 80% of the advised price.
Caan Berry attempts to back Hugh's elections here.
- Time of Bet Placement:
Aside from the more extreme Hugh Taylor example above, timing of bet placement is another important factor in getting advised or desired prices.
This is because in the time leading up to an event, information, or money, enters the market. This of course affects the price.
Example 1: A Premier League football match is taking place in the evening. In the afternoon it is reported that the home teams star striker is injured and will not play. As a consequence the odds of victory for the home team increase (drift).
Therefore, if using a strategy which is affected by information entering the market, it is important to be aware of how this will potentially affect the price.
Example 2: A horse race is taking place in the afternoon. Throughout the day several very large bets are placed on one of the runners. The bookmakers react to this by reducing the odds available on the horse.
It is often the case that a heavily backed selection will go on to win. When this happens you will often hear the post race commentary state the "market was correct" or words to similar effect.
By reducing the available price as money comes in, bookmakers are able to reduce their liabilities on the winning runner. From a value betting perspective you want to be getting your bet on at the largest price possible.
- Bookmaker Restrictions:
Any bettor who consistently takes value and/or wins regularly is liable to stake/price restrictions or account closure. This is discussed in depth across the internet so I won't elaborate further as it is a subject in itself.
If however you are or become affected by bookmaker account restrictions, think outside the box/rethink your strategy as there are ways around it. It is worth noting that Betting Exchanges will not restrict or close your account for winning or taking value positions.
Types of Bet
There are numerous types of bets on offer, however the vast majority of the time I use the two below:
Win Only (or Single): A bet on a selection to win. If the selection does not win the selection is a loser.
Each-Way: A bet on a selection to win or place. The win and place parts are two separate bets, therefore, an Each-Way bet costs double the price of a Win Only bet.
A £5 Each-Way bet comprises of a £5 bet on the selection to WIN, and a further £5 on the selection to PLACE. Therefore the total stake is £10.
The number of PLACES available on any given event depend on the sport, the size of the field and the bookmaker. Using a service such as Oddschecker is a useful comparative tool in order to get the best terms.
A guide to the numerous other types of bet available is here.
My Current Portfolio
Primary - My personal trading strategies as outlined on this website.
The majority of my working time is spent on my own strategies. I spend more time on reading, learning and finetuning my strategies than actual trading. Horse racing is where the majority of my time is spent, specifically jumps racing.
Secondary - Betting services I currently use.
All the below services are proven long term performers. I spend a very short amount of time placing these bets (10-15mins per day).
Portfolio correct at time of writing and subject to change. Regular updates are provided at the bottom of each write up.
2pts Win (free service)
Description: Horse Tipping Service focusing only on top class racing/festivals. The site is run by two extremely knowledgeable racing fans on a part time basis (they both hold down full time jobs).
Strategy: Check website daily for new tips (can be lengthy periods with no bets in quieter racing periods). As this service is relatively unknown and concentrates on liquid markets it is usually reasonably easy to get bets on at the advised prices. You can on occasion get higher than advised on the exchanges.
Email subscription is available but not always reliable - as above my advice is to check the website daily.
Bankroll Management
The majority of selections are win only for 1pt. There are occasional 2pt win selections and 1pt each way selections.
Strike rate is consistent at around 20% and advised prices are usually double digit. Therefore lengthy losing runs can and will occur. This is normal and a 100pt bank is definitely prudent.
Service update as of 23/4/22 - Nothing of note, service is operating as usual. Lifetime pts currently sitting at +298.
Ben Coley Golf tips (free service)
https://www.sportinglife.com/golf (other golf tipsters feature on this website - I only follow Ben Coley)
Description: Golf tipping service.
Strategy: Usually tips for the weeks upcoming golf tournaments are provided at the front end of the week (Mon/Tue) but it is prudent to check the website 1-2 times daily for any new info as there are also various ad hoc tips which can be posted at any time.
Bankroll Management:
The majority of selections are 1-3pts E/W although this can vary. Ben advices which bookies are paying out the most places - it is important to follow this information, or use Oddschecker to check yourself. Prices are usually high double or triple digit so losing runs are inevitable. Ben will often advise up to five or more tips per tournament and usually tips two (occasionally three) tournaments a week. A a result you end up backing a lot of selections which can be expensive if on a losing run.
I personally divide my stakes by 4 on this service due to the high amount of bets.
As Ben is relatively well known his advised prices tend to be negatively affected immediately after publication. Therefore judgement needs to be made with regards to what prices you are willing to take. Anything over 20% of the advised price is a no bet for me.
Service update as of 23/4/22 - Ben had a frankly ridiculous 2021 with profit at advised prices of +692pts. My personal profit achieved was less than this because, as stated above you usually won't get the listed price, and also due to my reduced stakes. 2022 is off to a solid start at +27pts.
Bet Alchemist (£36 per month reducing to £24 per month if taking a longer subscription)
Description: Professional Horse Tipping Service focusing mainly on top class racing/festivals.
Strategy: Bet Alchemist is professionally run, and you are told in advance when the next set of selections will be in your inbox. These are always bang on time, so it is simply a matter of checking your emails when specified.
Bankroll Management:
As the service focuses on higher class racing, there are often several days in a row with no bets, followed by busier days with 5-6 bets. The vast majority of bets are 0.5pt E/W which keeps stakes very manageable. Use a 100pt bank.
While you can often get the prices advised a few hours after the tips are published, it is advisable to get on straight away as some of the selections given will shorten.
It is advisable to take the year long subscription, as this will reduce your costs.
Service update as of 7/5/22 - The service is ticking along nicely, as usual, and had a nice April at +18pts to advised prices. May has also started positively. Lifetime profit for the service since launch in 2012 is +637pts.
Always Back Winners (£25 per month reducing to £15 per month if taking a longer subscription)
https://always-back-winners.com/
Description: Professional Horse Tipping Service focusing mainly on lower level Turf and All Weather flat racing. Combined with the two services above, this gives good overall coverage across a variety of types of racing. The website provider resets the bank at the start of the Summer/Winter Seasons.
Strategy: As with Bet Alchemist, the service is professionally run, and you get an email in your inbox bang on 9am every morning advising you to login to the website. Once logged in the days advice is posted in the members only blog.
Bankroll Management:
There are generally 1-2 tips per day, and the vast majority of these are 0.5pt E/W which keeps stakes very manageable. There are some days with no bets. Use a 100pt bank.
This service is slightly more price sensitive than the others although the majority of the prices do hold. Advise here is to be logged in at 9am ready to get bets on as some selections will steam in within an hour of publication, especially if also tipped elsewhere.
It is also advisable to take the year long subscription, as this will reduce your costs. At £15 per month on the year long subscription, this is one of the best value services on the market.
Service update as of 7/5/22 - The 2022 Flat Season has started solidly at +18pts profit.
All information found within this website is for educational purposes only. The website creator takes no responsibility for any losses incurred as a result of using systems or strategies found on this website. Past results shared on this website are no guarantee of future performance. We are legally required to state that there is no guarantee of specific results and all resources provided here are for informational purposes only.
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